Escalating Tensions: Israel and Hezbollah Edge Closer to Conflict Amid Rocket Fire and Threats

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Jakarta, Kowantaranews.com -The past few weeks have seen a sharp escalation in tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, culminating in northern Israel grappling with fires sparked by Hezbollah rockets. The hostilities, though temporarily subsiding during the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, have not dissipated but transformed into a war of words and intimidation, with both sides inching dangerously closer to a full-scale conflict.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, issued a stark warning this past Wednesday, threatening to invade northern Israel if a full-scale war erupted. While boasting about new weaponry that Hezbollah would deploy, Nasrallah was clear that his group does not desire a full-blown war with Israel. Instead, Hezbollah’s recent actions are framed as a show of support for its ally, Hamas, amidst the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah escalated its psychological warfare by releasing drone footage of Haifa, one of Israel’s northern cities, highlighting key military and civilian sites. This act was widely interpreted as a threat, suggesting that any escalation by Israel could result in a devastating strike on Haifa, potentially triggering an all-out war. Nasrallah confirmed that this was intended as a form of psychological warfare, aimed at deterring Israel from escalating the conflict.

In a swift response, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz indicated that Israel was on the brink of a decisive change in its approach to Hezbollah and Lebanon. Katz warned that if an all-out war were to occur, Hezbollah would face destruction, and Lebanon would suffer severe consequences. The Israeli military has already validated and approved operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon, underscoring the gravity of the situation.

Despite the aggressive posturing from both sides, there is a consensus that neither Israel nor Hezbollah truly wants to initiate a war at this time. The consequences of such a conflict would be catastrophic, affecting millions on both sides of the border. Moreover, it could draw in Hezbollah’s patron, Iran, and Israel’s key ally, the United States, further complicating an already volatile situation.

The delicate balance between deterrence and the desire for war is increasingly tenuous. Within the Israeli government, there is a growing belief that the security landscape has fundamentally changed following Hamas’s attacks on October 7th. Many officials argue that the residents of northern Israel will not be able to return home unless Hezbollah is decisively defeated on the battlefield. This sentiment is shared by many residents in the north, over 60,000 of whom have been displaced since Hezbollah began its rocket attacks in solidarity with Hamas. Similarly, more than 90,000 Lebanese have been displaced due to Israeli air and artillery strikes.

Recent polling data from the Jewish People Policy Institute indicates that public opinion in Israel is hardening. Over 60% of Israelis now favor a full-force attack on Hezbollah, with 36% advocating for immediate action, even before the conflict with Hamas in Gaza is resolved. This represents a significant increase in hawkish sentiment compared to a similar poll conducted three months ago.

The ongoing war in Gaza presents a significant deterrent for Israel’s government in terms of opening a second front against Hezbollah. Nevertheless, the Israeli government has taken steps that suggest it is preparing for this possibility. The number of reservists has been increased from 300,000 to 350,000, and there are discussions about extending the age limit for reserve duty. These moves have fueled speculation that Israel has not ruled out the possibility of a northern war.

The days leading up to Eid saw an intense exchange of drone and rocket attacks from Lebanon following the assassination of senior Hezbollah commander Taleb Abdallah by Israeli forces. This escalation is part of a broader pattern of retaliatory strikes that have intensified over the past month. The tit-for-tat nature of these attacks increases the risk of a full-scale war, particularly if a critical target is hit or the casualty toll becomes too high. According to the United Nations, over 400 people have been killed in Lebanon, including many civilians, while Israel has lost at least 25 people, both soldiers and civilians.

In an attempt to de-escalate the situation, the United States has sent an envoy to mediate between the two sides. However, Hezbollah has made it clear that its actions are in support of Hamas, and a ceasefire in Gaza is widely seen as the only viable diplomatic solution to the conflict in the north. For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the continuation of both conflicts may serve a strategic purpose. It is difficult for Netanyahu to declare victory in Gaza without decisively weakening Hamas, and the ongoing conflict allows Israeli forces to target more Hezbollah commanders and positions along the northern frontier. This, in turn, may help Netanyahu make the case for northern residents to return to their homes once the conflicts end.

Netanyahu’s strategy appears to be one of playing for time. By maintaining pressure on both fronts, he hopes to eventually secure a position of strength from which Israel can negotiate. However, this approach carries significant risks, as the situation on the ground remains highly volatile. Each exchange of fire, each threat, and each retaliatory strike brings Israel and Hezbollah closer to a point of no return.

The current scenario is a dangerous game of brinkmanship. Both Israel and Hezbollah are acutely aware of the devastating consequences of a full-scale war. Yet, the line between deterrence and actual conflict is becoming increasingly blurred. The international community continues to watch closely, hoping for a diplomatic resolution that can prevent another catastrophic war in the region.

For now, the residents of northern Israel and southern Lebanon remain in a state of limbo, displaced from their homes and living under the constant threat of violence. Their future hangs in the balance, dependent on the decisions made by leaders on both sides. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this volatile situation can be contained or whether it will spiral into a conflict that neither side can control. *Mukroni

Source bbc.com

Photo Kowantaranews